Mirror View
— one event, multiple reflectionsIDF strikes on IRGC military sites near Tehran
Iran launches ballistic missiles toward Israeli territory
Escalation Index
Factors
Latest EventsLayer 1 — Facts
5 events / 24hRed Alert: Ashkelon — 3 rockets intercepted
IDF statement: Retaliatory strikes on Tehran military sites
Brent crude +4.2%, Gold +1.8%, VIX +12%
UN Security Council emergency session called
Iran IRGC: 'Crushing response is imminent'
All Sources
Red Alert: Ashkelon, Sderot — incoming rockets
IDF Chief of Staff: 'Iran will pay a heavy price for every rocket'
Home Front Command opens all public shelters in central Israel
IRGC commander: 'Next phase of retaliation will be unprecedented'
Iran FM summons Israeli-allied ambassadors over 'act of war'
Pentagon deploys additional THAAD battery to Israel amid escalation
Oil prices surge past $90 as Middle East tensions escalate sharply
Macron calls for emergency G7 summit on Middle East crisis
UK Foreign Secretary: 'All sides must step back from the brink'
Lavrov: Western weapons deliveries to Israel fuel regional conflict
📉Impact Tracker
Economic consequences of conflict events
🔮Predictive Signals
AI-driven forecasts based on historical patterns and cross-source correlations
Retaliatory strike within 48-72h
Historical pattern: after Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Israel, IDF retaliatory strikes occur within 48-72 hours in 85% of cases. Current window: T+36h.
Strait of Hormuz disruption risk elevated
Narrative frequency of 'Hormuz' in Iranian military channels up 340% in 72h. Historically, when this metric exceeds 200%, shipping disruption follows within 2 weeks in 60% of cases.
Ceasefire talks likely within 7-10 days
Detecting early precursor signals: 'restraint' and 'de-escalation' appearing in European & American coverage increased 180% while divergence between US and European narratives is dropping. Pattern matches pre-ceasefire phases in 73% of historical conflicts.
Unusual Russian diplomatic activity detected
Russian coverage sentiment toward Iran shifted -0.4 in 48h (from supportive to neutral). Historically, this precedes Russia distancing itself from Iranian positions, possibly signaling back-channel negotiations or intelligence-sharing with the West.
Israeli real estate market stress incoming
In past 3 escalation cycles, Israeli housing prices in northern/southern regions dropped 8-15% within 60 days of sustained Escalation Index >70. Current EI at 72 for 5 consecutive days.
🎯mrrrs predict
Systematic predictions with tracked outcomes — our scorecard
Predictions vs Polymarket
View on Polymarket →Safety Map — Israel
Safest: EilatRecommendation: Eilat has been the least targeted region across the last 3 conflict cycles, with 0 strikes in the past 24 hours.